Internet
to Continue Double Digit Growth, with Syndicated TV, Outdoor
and Magazines Higher Than Market Average
Total U.S. advertising spending is expected
to increase 2.6 percent in 2007 to $153.7 billion, according
to the full-year forecast released by TNS Media Intelligence,
the leading provider of strategic advertising and marketing
information. This anticipated tepid gain is the smallest since
the media economy emerged from its 2001 recession and follows
estimated advertising spending growth of 3.8 percent in 2006.
Advertising expenditures are forecast to increase
by just 2.1 percent in the first half of 2007 followed by
a gain of 3.2 percent in the second half, paralleling an expected
late year uptick in overall economic activity.
“Our
outlook for 2007 is tempered by the absence of two biennial
advertising events, the Olympics and federal elections, which
tend to contribute an incremental 80-100 basis points to growth
rates,” said Steven Fredericks,
President and Chief Executive Officer, TNS Media Intelligence.
“More significant, we expect
share of total ad spending will continue to shift away from
the Top 100 marketers, as media fragmentation enables more
brands with smaller media budgets to participate in the market,
while concurrently helping dampen media price inflation.”
|
|
|
2007
TOTAL AD EXPENDITURES1
GROWTH
ESTIMATES |
|
|
|
|
PERIOD |
% CHANGE vs. 2006 |
|
First Half 2007 |
2.1% |
|
Second Half 2007 |
3.2% |
|
FULL YEAR 2007 |
2.6% |
|
Source:
TNS Media Intelligence
1
Defined as all TNS MI measured media, including: Network
TV; Spot TV; Cable TV; Syndication TV; Hispanic Network
TV; Consumer Magazines; Sunday Magazines; Local Magazines;
Hispanic Magazines; Business-to-Business Magazines;
Local Newspapers; National Newspapers; Hispanic Newspapers;
Network Radio; Spot Radio; Local Radio; Internet; and
Outdoor. |
“Based
on our forecast, 2007 is poised to be the third consecutive
year in which the advertising sector more closely tracks growth
in real GDP as opposed to its historical reference mark of
nominal GDP,” added Fredericks.
“The forces driving this new
pattern appear to be sustaining and there is little reason
to believe a return to the old order will be forthcoming.”
|
|
|
ANNUAL GROWTH RATES |
|
|
AD SPEND |
REAL GDP |
|
2000 |
+13.3% |
+3.7% |
|
2001 |
(-9.8%) |
+0.8% |
|
2002 |
+4.2% |
+1.6% |
|
2003 |
+6.1% |
+2.5% |
|
2004 |
+9.8% |
+3.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
2005 |
+3.0% |
+3.2% |
|
2006 |
+3.8% (e) |
+3.0% (e) |
|
2007 |
+2.6% (e) |
+2.2% (e) |
|
Sources: TNS Media Intelligence;
Bureau of Economic Analysis; UBS Warburg |
Internet display advertising is expected to
continue growing at double-digit rates in 2007 with Syndication
TV, Outdoor and Magazines also exceeding the overall market
average. Network TV is projected to be almost flat versus
2006, while newspapers and Spot TV are expected to experience
outright declines in ad revenue.
|
|
|
2007 PROJECTIONS BY MEDIUM
(Ranked
by Growth Rate) |
|
|
|
|
% SHARE OF AD SPEND |
|
|
% CHANGE vs. 2006 |
|
2007
(forecast) |
2006 (estimate) |
|
Internet1 |
13.4% |
|
7.2% |
6.5% |
|
Syndication TV |
6.6% |
|
2.9% |
2.8% |
|
Outdoor |
5.7% |
|
2.6% |
2.5% |
|
Consumer & Sunday Magazines |
5.5% |
|
17.9% |
17.5% |
|
Spanish Language Media |
5.4% |
|
3.3% |
3.2% |
|
Cable Network TV |
4.7% |
|
11.9% |
11.7% |
|
Business-To-Business Magazines |
2.1% |
|
3.0% |
3.0% |
|
Radio |
1.7% |
|
7.3% |
7.4% |
|
Network Television |
0.6% |
|
15.2% |
15.5% |
|
Newspapers2
|
-0.9% |
|
17.7% |
18.4% |
|
Spot TV |
-2.8% |
|
10.9% |
11.6% |
|
Source:
TNS Media Intelligence
1.
Internet estimates reflect display advertising only
2.
Newspaper estimates do not include web site advertising
Share
figures may not add to 100.0% due to rounding |
