The Tomás Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California projects that 9.3 million Latino voters will go to the polls in the 2008 presidential elections. That is an increase of over 1.7 million voters or an increase of approximately 23% compared to 2004.
"As the U.S. Latino population surges, we are seeing increases in registration and voter turnout due to increased naturalization numbers by Latino immigrants beginning in the 1990s and Latino youth coming of voting age" said Harry Pachon, Ph.D., President of TRPI.
The potential impact of a Latino voting bloc is particularly high in states with large concentrations of Latinos. For instance, in California, it takes a mere 3.1% of Latino voters to cause a 1% shift in the state's presidential election results. Similarly, in Florida only 4.5% of Latino voters are needed to create a 1% statewide shift in the vote.
Even in non-traditional Latino states, such as Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington, we will see thousands of new Latino voters in 2008. Rudy de la Garza, TRPI Vice President, notes however that, "even with such substantial increases, Latinos must significantly increase their rates of registration and voting in order to influence the election's results".
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Founded in 1985, the Tomás Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI) advances informed policy on key issues affecting Latino communities through objective and timely research contributing to the betterment of the nation. TRPI is an affiliated research unit of the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning, and Development and is associated with the Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University.
Source: The Tomas Rivera Policy Institute
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Latinos in the United States
